CEOs Undeterred By Uncertain Business Landscape

• CEO optimism strengthens, although 43% say they won’t fully achieve transformation goals.

• 56% of global CEOs expect to actively pursue M&A activity in the next 12 months, versus 37% in September 2024.

• Most confident CEOs taking long-term approach to transformation with a focus on customers and employees, despite evolving disruptive forces.

Confidence in growth among global CEOs is increasing despite complex geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges, according to the latest EY-Parthenon CEO Outlook Survey: Global Confidence Index, which evaluates the optimism levels of 1,200 global business leaders based on 15 “Confidence Index" measures. The latest survey data was recorded after the 2024 US election and offers insights on leaders’ expectations for future growth and long-term value creation at many of the world’s leading companies.

Rapid technological advancements, evolving sustainability agendas and geopolitical tensions – which 49% of CEO respondents believe will further escalate in 2025 – are making corporate decisions more complex. However, the survey finds that overall CEO confidence has steadily increased to 73.5% (up from 70.5% in September 2024), with transformation at the heart of their ambitions. At the same time, more than half of CEO respondents (57%) are very confident they can successfully reimagine their business model for the future through transformation – which the report states will define the leaders and laggards of tomorrow.

Janet Truncale, EY Global Chair and CEO, says:

“Adaptability is the ultimate advantage in today’s landscape. Organizations that embrace transformation can turn disruption into opportunity, continuously learning, pivoting and growing to shape their future with confidence."

"The survey reveals that the most confident CEOs are taking a long-term approach to transformation, focusing on enhancing customer and employee engagement amid macroeconomic and technological shifts, and always placing humans at the centre as the best path to sustainable value creation.”

The survey highlights that strategic vision and investment in people – including upskilling employees to keep pace with technological innovation – are considered essential levers for growth. Eighty-five percent of global CEO respondents believe that addressing capability gaps and striking the right balance between human talent and new technology will be a crucial driver for success in the year ahead. However, caution remains around the talent landscape, with 42% of CEO respondents indicating that declining profitability could lead to workforce reductions.

Notably, the most confident CEOs are likely to aim for better employee and customer experiences through transformation (60% vs. 30% of the least confident CEOs), while the least confident CEOs focus on improving top-line growth and margin expansion (40% vs. 20% of the most confident CEOs).

2025 set to be a bumper year for deal making

The overall appetite among global CEO respondents for mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the next year has increased significantly, rising to 56% from 37% in September 2024 – the Outlook Survey’s highest deal ambitions for almost two years. This signals that a strong rebound is on the horizon for deals in 2025, continuing the upward trend of resilient M&A activity recorded in 2024. Notably, the most confident CEO respondents are significantly more focused on pursuing M&A in the next 12 months than the least confident CEOs (70% vs. 17%). Overall, 96% intend to pursue transaction initiatives over the next 12 months (M&A; divestments, spin-offs or IPOs; and joint ventures or strategic alliances).

There are also indications that 2025 could see an uptick in megadeals, with 60% of global CEO respondents expecting to see an increase in deals more than US$10b. Nearly half of CEO respondents are also looking to sell assets, with 48% planning a divestment or carve-out, up from 44% in September 2024 – adding further momentum to the deal market in the year ahead.

Andrea Guerzoni, EY Global Vice Chair – Strategy and Transactions, says:

“The rationale for M&A is strong. Digital transformation remains a critical driver of deal strategies, with artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities increasingly driving corporate acquisition strategies. At the same time, defensive consolidation helps companies build operational and competitive resilience."

"Cost synergies become more compelling in challenging economic environments. Activist investors continue pushing for strategic portfolio optimization and more accommodative credit conditions have improved M&A financing.”

The survey reveals that US, Canada and Mexico are among the top five hotspots for global investment in 2025, which could help global companies navigate potential tariffs from the US. Germany and the UK round-out the top five investment hotspots. From an industry perspective, real estate, technology, consumer products are the top three M&A destinations.

Guerzoni says:

“CEOs across the globe are adapting to a new normal of complex change. By adopting a transformation mindset with M&A as a key catalyst, the most confident CEOs will mitigate disruption and drive sustainable growth in 2025.”